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Breaking it down: Medal predictions for the Agria FEI Jumping World Championship 2022

Tuesday, 09 August 2022
ECCO FEI World Championships 2022

Photo © Jenny Abrahamsson/WoSJ Sweden’s Henrik von Eckermann, the current world number one, and King Edward – who also took the team gold at the Tokyo Olympics – have an impressive clear round rate of 80% in the 35 rounds they have jumped since June 2021. Photo © Jenny Abrahamsson for World of Showjumping.

This week, the jumping at the ECCO FEI World Championships kicks off in Herning, Denmark, with the Agria FEI Jumping World Championship on the program. A total of 34 nations will be represented in Herning: 22 with a team and 12 with individual athletes. 

The first ever individual World Champion was crowned in Paris in 1953, while the team championship was established in Aachen in 1978. Germany has the best record when it comes to the individual title: Out of 19 editions, a German rider has been crowned champion on seven occasions. For the teams, Germany and France have both claimed the title three times. 

Who are most likely to claim the medals as we head to Herning? With Jumpr, WoSJ took a closer look at the performance data from June 2021* leading up to the Agria FEI Jumping World Championship. Which team has the highest clear round* percentage? Which team has the lowest fault rate per round? And which horse-and-rider combination heads to Herning with a 100% clear round percentage? 

The teams to beat (on paper) – Germany and Sweden 

Photo © Jenny Abrahamsson/WoSJ From a total of 139 rounds jumped at 1.60m level since June 2021, the German team heading for Herning holds a clear round percentage of 61,18%. Photo © Jenny Abrahamsson for World of Showjumping.

When it comes to the clear round percentage for the teams*, Germany and Sweden stand out. From a total of 139 rounds jumped at 1.60m level since June 2021, the German team heading for Herning holds a clear round percentage of 61,18%, while the Swedish team has jumped clear in 60,54% of their 127 rounds. Team Belgium sits third with a clear round percentage of 52,55% in their 121 rounds. 

Only six teams on the entry list for Herning have a clear round percentage above 50%. In addition to Germany, Sweden and Belgium, the American team has jumped clear in 52,32% of their 75 rounds, while the Dutch have a clear round percentage of 50,96% in their 132 rounds and France follows with 50,53% in their 77 rounds.

Clear round percentage – teams above 50%: 

  1. Germany 61,18%
  2. Sweden 60,54%
  3. Belgium 52,55%
  4. USA 52,32%
  5. The Netherlands 50,96%
  6. France 50,53%

Looking at the average scores in a round for each team, Germany leads the way on 2,169 while Sweden sits second on 2,598. With 2,754, USA has the third lowest average score, while the Netherlands is fourth on 2,876 and Belgium is fifth with 2,915. 

Average scores per round – top five teams:

  1. Germany 2,169
  2. Sweden 2,598
  3. USA 2,754
  4. Netherlands 2,876
  5. Belgium 2,915

Can King Edward continue to reign surpreme?

Photo © Jenny Abrahamsson/WoSJ In Tokyo, King Edward wrote his name in the history books as he became the third horse to ever complete an Olympic Games without knocking down a single pole. Can the 12-year-old gelding continue his flawless flow in Herning? Photo © Jenny Abrahamsson for World of Showjumping.

Individually, the hosts might be holding an ace up their sleeve: Denmark’s Lars Bak Andersen and Carl-Heinz B. have a clear round percentage of a 100%. However, the pair has only jumped two rounds set at 1.60m since they teamed up at the beginning of 2022. 

Sweden’s Henrik von Eckermann, the current world number one, and King Edward – who also took the team gold at the Tokyo Olympics – have an impressive clear round rate of 80% in the 35 rounds they have jumped since June 2021 and are undoubtedly favourites for the gold medal. In Tokyo, King Edward wrote his name in the history books as he became the third horse to ever complete an Olympic Games without knocking down a single pole. Can the 12-year-old gelding continue his flawless flow in Herning?

Leading up to Herning, both France and Germany have shown fantastic form and individually the data favours two riders in particular: France’s Kevin Staut and Scuderia 1918 Viking d’la Rousserie as well as Germany’s Andre Thieme and DSP Chakaria – the reigning European Champions – both have a clear round percentage of 75%. However, Staut has only jumped eight rounds compared to Thieme’s 32. While they are currently the reserve pair, it’s worth mentioning that Germany’s Janne Friederike Meyer-Zimmermann and Messi vt Ruytershof also have an impressive record: They have been clear in 72% of their 18 rounds since June 2021. 

Over ten rounds, Austria’s Julia Houtzager-Kayzer and High Five have jumped 70% clear, the same percentage as Dutch rider Maikel van der Vleuten and Beauville Z – Tokyo’s individual bronze medallists – have recorded over 33 rounds. 

67% is the clear round percentage for USA’s Mclain Ward and Contagious, Nicola Philippaerts and Katanga vh Dingeshof as well as Sweden’s Jens Fredricson and Markan Cosmopolit. Since June 2021, both Ward and Fredricson have jumped a total of 24 rounds set at 1.60m, while Philippaerts has jumped 36. 

The individual final will be conducted over two 1.60m rounds, judged under Table A not against the clock and the first round of the individual final is compulsory for the 25 best-placed horses and riders from the previous competitions of the championship. Based only on the clear round percentage leading up to Herning, Bak Andersen, Von Eckermann, Staut, Thieme, Meyer-Zimmermann, Houtzager-Kayser, Van der Vleuten, Ward, Philippaerts and J. Fredricson would be joined by Brian Moggre (USA) and Balou du Reventon (64% / 22 rounds), Denis Lynch (IRL) on Brooklyn Heights (64% / 11 rounds), Max Kühner (AUT) on Elektrik Blue P (62% / 39 rounds), Ben Maher (GBR) on Faltic HB (62% / 32 rounds), Malin Bayard-Johnson (SWE) on H&M Indiana (61% / 31 rounds), Billy Raymont (AUS) on Black Jack Ixe (60% / 5 rounds), Camilo Ruedo (COL) on Indus vh Keysereyck (60 % / 10 rounds), Julien Epaillard (FRA) on Caracole de La Roque (58% / 12 rounds), Christian Ahlmann (GER) on Dominator 2000 Z (58% / 24 rounds), Simon Delestre (FRA) on Cayman Jolly Jumper (57% / 14 rounds), Gregory Wathelet (BEL) on Nevados S (56% / 25 rounds), Scott Brash (GBR) on Hello Jefferson (56% / 32 rounds), Harry Charles (GBR) on Romeo 88 (56 % / 18 rounds), Adrienne Sternlicht (USA) on Cristalline (56% / 9 rounds), as well as Harrie Smolders (NED) on Monaco (55% / 33 rounds). 

Currently ranked second on the Longines Ranking, Switzerland’s Martin Fuchs and Leone Jei, have jumped clear in 54% of their 28 rounds, while Sweden’s Peder Fredricson, the current third highest ranked rider in the world, and H&M All In, have cleared 50% of their 14 rounds. 

For more statistics, check the Jumpr app. 

 


 

Editor’s note: 

* Rounds counted are 1.60m rounds jumped since June 2021 

* Second rounds and jump-offs are included in the count of total rounds

* Team percentages include all five members of each team, incl. reserve horse-and-rider combinations

* Individuals and teams entered can be found via this link



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